Ventures Africa | These Four Sectors Will Determine Uganda’s Growth In 2015 (
economy of Uganda, a tourist attraction and significant player in the
East African Community (EAC), has been tipped for a 5 to 5.5 percent
growth in the 2014/2015 financial year. This projection is well above
the 4.5 percent growth recorded in the previous year.

inflationary pressures stemming from the influx of “campaign cash” ahead
of the 2016 general elections could repress this expected growth.

Given these systemic endogenous forces at play, the deciding sectors for
Uganda’s continued growth this year are Agriculture, Services,
Industry/Energy and Oil & Gas.

Agriculture has the greatest impact on the socioeconomic bottom line of
Uganda as over 75 percent of nationals depend on it for survival.

Forecasts are in favor of significant investments into its various
sub-sectors this year, but this is all dependent on climate change and
the extent to which it upsets the balance of things. Assuming favorable
weather conditions, the average year-on-year growth rate of 3.03 percent
should be maintained, thus guaranteeing internal and external demand as
well as multiple revenue streams from the sale of agricultural produce.
So, on one hand, agriculture can create jobs and feed the nation, but
on the other, the price of food can be a determinant of the inflation
rates in the country.

Services has a less socioeconomic impact than agriculture, but accounts
for almost half of Uganda’s GDP. With notable increases in telecoms,
trade and related business activities, this sector is poised for still
greater contributions. All telecom operators are gearing up for
significant infrastructure upgrades in order to differentiate themselves
from the stiff competition.

Other sub-sectors including tourism, real
estate, financial and support services are poised for increased trading
as well.

With new projects in the pipeline, activity in the industry/energy
sector is expected to be bolstered this year. In the construction
sub-sector, for instance, flagship projects comprising power stations
will materialize in the course of the year.

Although its sectoral
contribution to GDP fell from 25 to 18 percent, the sector is still
highly regarded as a driver of employment, higher incomes and overall
value creation. Also, analysts believe the sector plays a pivotal role
in Uganda’s Vision 2040 targets.

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